There has been a request to explain why the bid allocations worked how they did
I am happy to do that, and also explain why they are relatively fair in this case.
As
someone who has unfortunately read all of the formatting documents from
USA-U multiple times, i unfortunately know the process inside and out.
And,
yes, the bid allocations aren't perfect, but the process does make
sense.
I write this as someone, who, like "thefan" on RSD, is not a fan of
USA-U, and against most of the changes, the triple crown tour, etc. The
reason i have read all the documents repeatedly, because, to be able to
criticize the USA-U, you have to unfortunately understand what they are
trying to do.
The USA-U has done some good things for youth and high school ultimate,
but on the whole what they've done for club ultimate is not the best.
(and there are lots of reasons for this that would take way too long to
write, but flex and people close to me know a few of them).
With that said, the bid allocations to regionals are pretty fair.
Let's
start with the obvious. The stated goal of the series is to crown a
national champion. Any team that can get 10 (or is it 12?) people
willing to shell out the money for USA-U dues is free to take a shot at
this, and in exchange for the $500 the 10 or 12 of you pay or whatever,
you get a magazine mailed to your houses, a dozen bumper stickers, and
the right to vote for at least some of the board members, and the chance
to play in other sanctioned tournaments if you want, which are becoming
more numerous relative to unsanctioned ones for better and worse.
The odds, increasingly, are becoming stacked against these teams, but
still, just about anyone can enter sectionals and try to pit themselves
against the best and see how far they get.
In a perfect
world, you would have every team at nationals, and then everyone could
compete against each other and see who is the best. Unfortunately,
because it's hard to fit 50 rounds into 4 days, and there are issues
with field sites, and you can only play one team at a time, they can't
just have everyone at nationals. (there are a number of sports and not
quite sports (crossword puzzles and other mental games), where this in
fact happens).
Ultimate, unfortunately, is not one of
those activities.
So there are intermediate competitions. The number of teams and the
number of days to determine who finishes more has constraints, and USA-U
puts alot of thought into these constraints. I don't think they always
get them right, but in this case they have decided 16 teams at nationals
is the appropriate upper bound for club (too much bigger and you can't
find many warm weather venues), and for all levels beyond the first
level. (in college it's 20, which is an awkward number, but there are
fewer divisions running simultaneously so they still have access to a
decent number of sites).
In addition to considerations
such as field space, they (USA-U) wants to give regionals some prestige
in its own right, and also make sure that regionals is an event that
will mostly have an appropriate level of competition. Again, they are
trying to crown a national champion and find the right representatives
to compete at nationals. So regionals is also not an event where
everyone is welcome, and they hope to create a format that will do that.
So to try to weed out the most hopeless teams, they have cutoffs for
how many teams make regionals.
They can be found in the club format here:
Size of Regionals Number of Registered Teams
8 teams 16 or fewer teams
10 teams 17-20 teams
12 teams 21-24 teams
16 teams 25 or more team
I
don't personally love these allocations, but it's pretty easy to see
that they want to weed out something resembling the bottom half, with a
slight benefit of the doubt to teams right on the border. This is fair
enough, because remember an 11 team region creates some ugly formatting
issues, and the issue isn't just who makes regionals, but also creating
the right formats to determine a national champion, so hence the HUGE
desire to have regionals have an even number of teams (If you've ever
read the 150 page monstrosity called the USA-U tournament format manual,
you'd see this point drilled home, but I wouldn't wish that on anyone).
These formats can sort of work in an imperfect way for sectionals where
there's no choice as to the number of teams, and there are lots of bids
in some cases anyway for regionals, but for regionals they try to
restrict it to a few proven formats.
So fair enough, your
region has 8 bids, now lets see how teams would have gotten allocated 2
seasons ago.
Two seasons ago, it was like the US House of Representatives. This was
the easiest and most painless way to do it. Take the number of teams and
assign bids proportionately.
So..... capital would have 6 teams (+scandal), you'd have 4. DC would
get 4.8 and you'd get 3.2. Since .8 is a bigger number than .2, they'd
get 5 bids and you'd get 3.
This would leave you EXACTLY where you are now. Bummer. We remove
scandal from the equation.
7 bids, dc still has more teams than Philly, so they get the extra spot
to regionals. Whoops. That didn't help either.
One of the
problems with this system was that it encouraged bid stuffing, and
there would be rumors of teams getting subsidized to come out, or
perhaps more nefariously allegations out of towners running college
tournaments in the local market the same weekend as our sectionals (but
not theirs), to try to suppress bids to not only regionals but
nationals (which also had a size bid system to some degree).
One
of the other problems, is that if one region became a hotbed of
ultimate with several loaded teams, the only way to make the sections
and regions more equitable would be to redraw the map, which takes
committees, and can be as politically charged as redrawing congressional
districts. Even this may not be enough, because quite simply in the
last few years the couple hundred or so square miles of San Francisco
should really have been their own region they've had so many absolutely
loaded and semi-loaded teams across ALL THREE divisions, while other
regions might have 4 or 5 states that only have 2-3 decent teams between
them.
So there was an attempt to find a better way to
allocate bids.
That leads to the current process, which was probably an improvement on
the old one.
8 bids to regionals. Minus one because the folks at USA-U think it's not
fair to scandal that they have to win their section by a combined score
of 52-1 or whatnot and it wastes everyone's time. So 7 bids now plus
scandal is already in for the 8th spot.
There is still a
size component to the process. It allocates for half of the remaining
available bids plus one.
I personally think this should be representative (like the old system),
but instead usa-u has gone to try to make it more even, with the most
populous section only getting one more bid.
This is probably to prevent bid stuffing, but it also serves a useful
purpose in parts of the country where populations are sparse, and travel
times are long, that getting 10 sanctioned games is just not going to
happen. Teams out in montana can either more or less fly everywhere,
host their own event, or scrimmage themselves pretty much. So by having a
size component it creates some allocation for pickup teams to think
they have a chance.
In any event, there are 4 size bids.
This is supposed to create some chances for pickup teams, or maybe teams
that had a weak regular season in big sections. It also helps with
geographic diversity and all of that.
No matter though, these bids get split evenly, which is just as well
because founders is the smaller section. You get 2 bids, capital gets 2.
Now it has a strength component as well. In this case, USA-U assumes
that the "size" bids will be claimed by the best ranked teams in a
section. So out of the mix go GMG, Hot Metal, and the top two teams not
named Scandal in DC.From there, they take the next 3 strongest teams and
they each earn their region a strength bid.
The issue
becomes with how do you determine strong. Since USA-U has no way of
determining the strength of pickup teams, they assume that they are more
likely to be bad than good (which is generally but obviously not always
true), so they put them at the bottom. This is fair enough even though I
personally don't like it. Of course, there's no objective way of saying
"wait, that player used to be on this team 3 years ago... and and...
they should get a strength bid!)"
So you got a strength bid, as did two teams in DC. The reality in this
case, is that "strength" bid is something of a misnomer, and it's closer
to (but not entirely) a participation bid.
That is one
legitimate beef with the USA-U, that their process of being eligible for
a strength bid is too restrictive, even though it's relatively fair
(two sanctioned tournaments). This isn't going away though, in their
world everyone would be a usa-u member and every tournament would be
sanctioned. (that last sentence is my opinion, based on more than
conjecture but you could lobby them to reduce the requirements)
USA-U
wants you to compete in the regular season. They want you to think that
it matters. This is an area you can have a legitimate beef with USA-U
but you won't get anywhere. Lots of teams have fought that particular
fight and lost. I think the formalized regular season has some benefits,
but some clear drawbacks as well. It's somewhat restrictive of roster
movement, which has the benefit of making the regular season games
potentially represent a teams true ability better (but there are still
lots of factors that are bigger such as travel time, injuries etc), but
also maybe insures fewer teams go to tournaments because getting pickup
players that are solid to make up the numbers is more difficult.
The
other area you can have a legitimate beef with USA-U is that the
strength bids should be allocated first, not size bids. This is really a
matter of taste, and the arguments are stronger the other way, but I
will try to make your argument for you. It runs as follows:
There
are 3 strengh bids for your region. Shouldn't they go to the 3
strongest teams? Let the strong teams get the strength bids, and then
everyone else can battle to claim one of the size bids.
In this system, GMG and HM claim a strength bid. That would give your
section 4 bids.
The counter argument of course, is that imagine a section with GMG, HM,
and the worst teams you've ever seen.
Then imagine a
section with a bunch of teams in between HM and the worst team you've
ever seen.
That region gets fewer strength bids, even though they are going to be
much better at sending teams that will be worthy of a bottom finish at
regionals spot.
And that argument is fairer.
Remember, the goal of
USA-U's series is to crown a national champion. Their goal is to be
objective and fair about finding the right number of teams to be at
regionals, and as such, the system is how it is.
By the numbers, and USA-U's regular season, they assumed that 3 of the 7
best teams at regionals would come from your section. They went with
the data and process they had.
They assume pickup teams will finish at the bottom, because they
usually do, and because it goes with the narrative that to be good at
ultimate you must put alot of time into each and every season.
In
fairness, if the women from dbj and AG all quit their teams in august
and made a super team, there would be at least one women's team in
capital who had "earned" a strength bid also on the outside looking in.
And it's pretty fair. On the list of horrible things the USA-U has done
or is trying to do to club, it's towards the bottom, and it's only on
the list at all because some of the system involves their dreaded
regular season nonsense.
Missing regionals hurts. But
this will be my one lecturing point.
Your stated goal was to make regionals. Some people have lectured your
team that it's better earned on the field than on a petition especially
after you didn't win any games (and all of the games were fairly
played).
That's probably true, but I'd go differently. Having an outcome based
goal is just simply a mistake. Most of the great teams these days have
process based goals, even the ones i don't like. One college nationals
power had a goal that had nothing to do with Nationals. Their goal was
simply to be the most physically fit and best conditioned team in the
country. They work hard on that goal, and as a byproduct of it have not
only made nationals recently but won it.
Legendary
women's coach Lou Burruss had a goal for his team of not getting caught
up in petty call games and treating every team with respect and a full
out assumption that every opponent's call was not meant to cheat. That
was one of their key goals. He said it saved their team energy and gave
them focus and let them play their own game. Oregon just won college
women's nationals.
Teams that have goals of "nationals
or bust", almost invariably fold after they dont hit their performance
goal (if not right away, usually not too long after). At the nationals
level, who gets a bid is much more opaque and subject to rigging than
the relatively transparent bid to regionals process. (not necessarily by
design but certainly in practice).
I'd say one of the
goals for your leadership next year needs to be to eliminate any
performance based goals. Find a process goal or three and stick with it.
Process goals should be stretch goals, but the performance will follow
if you hit your process goal. For my own team our process goal is kind
of a secret, and we haven't finished hitting it yet, but it's given us
something to rally around this year.
Outcomes based goals in our sport are going to lead to heartbreak. You can get hosed by so many things out of your control.
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